Will My Home Value Increase in Five Years? An Idaho Falls Seller's Take

"Will my home be worth more in five years?" I hear that one a lot around Idaho Falls, usually from folks deciding whether to sell now or hang on a while. I wish I could give you a straight yes. The honest answer is that nobody knows for sure. Not me, not the big real estate websites, and not your brother-in-law who's sure prices only go one direction. What I can do is walk you through what actually moves home values here and how to keep an eye on yours. A good first step is knowing where you stand today, so get a free Idaho Falls home value estimate and use it as your starting point.

Why nobody can promise you a number

You've probably seen headlines or websites that say what homes will be worth by a certain year. Most of them just carry past trends forward. A forecast is somebody's best guess about interest rates, jobs, building and buyer demand, and every one of those can change.

Home values also don't move in a straight line. Over the long haul they've tended to rise in a lot of places, but there have been stretches where prices sat flat or slipped, even in markets everybody thought were a sure thing. So when someone hands you a projected number for your house, ask what it's based on. If it's a national average, it isn't really about your street in Idaho Falls.

What actually drives home values in Eastern Idaho

Instead of chasing a prediction, here's what I watch:

• Supply and demand. When there are more buyers than homes for sale, prices tend to climb. When listings pile up and sit, prices soften.
• Jobs and paychecks. People buy homes where they can find good work. When local employers are hiring and wages are growing, more folks can afford to buy.
• Interest rates. Rates change what buyers can afford each month. Higher rates can cool demand, and lower rates can bring buyers off the sidelines.
• New construction. New subdivisions give buyers more choices. That can take some pressure off prices for older homes nearby, especially when the new ones sit in a similar price range.
• Your neighborhood. Schools, parks, shopping and commute times all play in. A quiet street near the Greenbelt and a home backing onto a busy road can head in different directions.

It's also worth remembering that Eastern Idaho isn't one market. A home in Blackfoot, a place on a few acres out by Lewisville and a house in an established Idaho Falls neighborhood can all behave differently in the same year. Rural homes and acreage have fewer sales to compare, so their values are harder to pin down.

The part you actually control

You can't control rates or the job market. You can control your house. Over five years, how you take care of the place can make a real difference in what it's worth when you sell.

Keep up with the boring stuff: the roof, the furnace, the water heater, the gutters and the sprinklers. Small problems that get ignored for years tend to turn into big ones a buyer's inspector will find. If you're planning updates, stick with things that fit your neighborhood, like fresh paint, updated fixtures and decent curb appeal, rather than going way beyond what nearby homes offer. I wrote more about what pulls values down in what decreases home value the most, and a lot of it is stuff you can head off early.

How to check whether your home's value is going up

Rather than guess at the future, track what's happening now:

• Check your value once or twice a year. Don't obsess over it every month. Online numbers jump around, so look at the trend over time.
• Watch homes like yours. Pay attention to similar homes near you that go up for sale. Do they sell quickly, or sit for months and drop the price?
• Get a real number before big decisions. When you're seriously thinking about selling, get a value based on actual closed sales, not just a website's guess.

That last one matters here because Idaho is a non-disclosure state, so sold prices aren't public the way they are in some places. If you want a number built from real closed sales near you, my free home value report is a quick way to get one, and it doesn't commit you to anything.

Should you sell now or wait?

This is usually the real question behind "will my home go up in value?" My take: don't make this call based only on a guess about prices. Make it based on your life. Do you need more room for the kids? Can you comfortably afford the next place, payment and all?

If the move makes your life better and the numbers work today, waiting around for a price bump you can't count on may not be worth it. If your home still fits and you're happy there, there's nothing wrong with staying put. Either way, figure out what you'd actually walk away with after your mortgage payoff and selling costs. That number tells you more than any forecast.

Why I'll give it to you straight

I've lived in Eastern Idaho for about 15 years, and I started Smart Seller to help people and give sellers options that fit their situation. Sometimes that means telling you I think waiting makes sense. When you are ready, my Smart Seller listing programs let you choose how much help you want, and you can cancel anytime. You can read more about me or see the towns I serve on my Idaho Falls real estate page.

If you want to know where your home stands today, get your free home value estimate and I'll walk you through what's behind it. Or email me at alan@smartselleridaho.com. - Uncle Al

Idaho Falls Home Seller FAQs

Do home values always go up?

No. Over long stretches they've tended to rise in a lot of places, but values can sit flat or drop for a few years at a time. That's why I'd never count on a price bump to make a move work.

What is the five-year rule in real estate?

It's a rule of thumb that you should plan to own a home about five years so appreciation and loan paydown can cover the costs of buying and selling. It's a guideline, not a law, and your situation matters more than the calendar.

Should I wait to sell until my home is worth more?

Only if you can comfortably afford to wait and the house still fits your life. If you need to move, trying to time the market can cost you more than it saves.

Can a website tell me what my house will be worth in five years?

Not really. Those projections carry past trends forward, and they can't see your home's condition or what's happening on your street. They're fine for curiosity, not for planning.

How do I keep track of my home's value over time?

Check it once or twice a year and watch how similar homes nearby are selling. A free home value estimate gives you a solid starting point, whether you're in Idaho Falls, Blackfoot or anywhere in Eastern Idaho.

Photo: The falls on the Snake River along the Greenbelt in Idaho Falls, Idaho, by Greg Schechter / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0